feat(status-matrix): report everything in flight as one matrix

Answering "where do we stand" took three separate questions: what is done, what is still running, and how sure the agent is. confidence answers only the last one, and only for a bundle it just staged; observe watches a single named target and speaks only when that target changes. Neither gives the whole picture on demand.

The skill reads the todo list, the working tree, live background jobs and agents, and the branch's PRs with their checks, then prints one table - item, state, fix confidence, break risk, evidence or next step - followed by at most three lines for blocked, residuals and running.

It is read-only by construction: no edit, no stage, no deploy, no started work. The percentages route to confidence instead of inventing a second scale, and done means verified, so work that merely looks finished stays open. A source that could not be read produces no row rather than a guessed one.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>

skills/status-matrix/SKILL.md

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+---
+name: status-matrix
+description: >
+  Print one matrix of everything currently in flight: open and closed tasks,
+  running workflows and background jobs, plus confidence and break risk per
+  item. Trigger on /status-matrix, "status", "übersicht", "wo stehen wir", or
+  whenever the operator asks what is done, what is left, or what is still
+  running. Portable across projects.
+---
+
+One-shot overview, no side effects: this skill reads state and reports it. It
+never edits files, stages, commits, deploys, or starts work — the operator
+decides what to act on after reading the matrix.
+
+## Collect the state
+
+Gather in parallel, skip any source the session does not have, and never invent
+a row for a source you could not read:
+
+1. **Tasks** — the session's todo list, the operator's stated goals this
+   session, and any requirement or plan documents the work follows.
+2. **Working tree** — `git status --short` and `git log --oneline -10`:
+   uncommitted files are open work, commits since the branch point are closed
+   work. Untracked files count as open.
+3. **Running** — background bash jobs, spawned agents not yet reported,
+   scheduled `/loop` wake-ups, and remote runs (CI, deploys). Poll their live
+   state; a job you started is not "running" because you started it.
+4. **Remote** — open PRs and issues for the branch, and their check
+   conclusions, when a forge CLI is available.
+
+## The matrix
+
+One table, most-blocking first, one row per item:
+
+| Item | State | Conf. | Break risk | Evidence / next step |
+
+- **State**: `open`, `running`, `blocked`, `done`. `done` means verified —
+  a passing run, a green check, a reproduction that now succeeds. Work that
+  merely looks finished is `open`.
+- **Conf.** and **Break risk**: two separate percentages per the `confidence`
+  skill — probability the item does what it claims, and probability it breaks
+  something else. Only for rows that changed something; `—` for pure
+  observation rows.
+- **Evidence / next step**: for `done`, the strongest proof line (what ran,
+  what it returned). For everything else, the single next action.
+
+Then at most three lines below the table:
+
+- **Blocked on**: what needs the operator (a decision, a credential, an
+  approval) — omit when nothing does.
+- **Residuals**: what keeps the lowest confidence number below 100.
+- **Running**: what will report back on its own, so the operator does not wait
+  on it manually.
+
+## Rules
+
+- Cover everything in scope, including work the operator did not ask about —
+  a forgotten background job or an unpushed commit is exactly what the matrix
+  exists to surface.
+- Report what the poll returned, never a predicted result for work still in
+  flight; a running item has no confidence number yet.
+- Compress: one row per item, no per-item paragraphs. If a row needs
+  explaining, the operator will ask.