Break risk was the half of the confidence block with no method behind it. The fix-confidence half at least pointed at a claim that had been verified; the break-risk half was a feeling with a percent sign, and it was wrong in the direction that costs the operator: too low, because nothing forced an enumeration before the number was written.
The skill makes the number a consequence of six questions. Enumerate every consumer against the committed state rather than the working tree, because a symbol with no caller in your branch may still have nine elsewhere. Measure the delta where it becomes observable, not in the source: a port sweep that read as sixteen forwards produced zero in production because the flag it gated on was unrendered template text, and a risk sized against the apparent behaviour would have been sized against something that never ran. Separate live from latent and report both. Walk the deployment matrix and give a verdict per cell instead of averaging two modes into one figure that is wrong in both. Weigh the failure mode, because a fail-open exposure outranks a likelier fail-closed one. And treat subagent reports, conversation summaries and your own earlier messages as claims to re-verify rather than as evidence.
Anchors for the bands, and the rule to discount yourself in any area where the operator has already caught you out, so a region with a bad track record gets a worse number than its paper evidence suggests.
confidence now calls it every time and reports what it produces instead of estimating its own second number. The MD032 blank line is what markdownlint wants in that file.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
